Research in Focus: Can You Predict a Good Time to Buy and Sell Stocks?
Can investors predict when to buy and sell securities? Jim Davis, PhD, runs more than 780 tests on data from 15 stock markets to test this theory.
“There’s great satisfaction in poring over statistical work, seeing something come out of it, and then trying to document whether it’s really systematic, or just a chance result in the data. It’s like an ongoing crime scene, where you’re always learning stuff.”
“The way it works is, you start with a little idea, and it just keeps growing. If you’re pretty good at it, you just keep expanding it around the edges, and it evolves into a—maybe a big idea eventually.”
The 200th Draft
In The 200th Draft, Eugene Fama describes his special working relationship with Kenneth French and their ability to tap into their underlying thought processes and broader insights.
“People don’t know this, but when we publish a paper, you’re looking at probably the 200th draft.”
“Don’t give me something until it’s as good as you think it can be, and then I will try to improve it—that’s the way we work together.”
“The difference all comes with respect to people’s ability to talk about material in a way that brings it to life … and shows you how they think about it. You can’t get that from just reading.”